Technology Fail

posted Oct 27, 2014, 12:18 PM by Katie Shook   [ updated Oct 29, 2014, 9:51 AM ]

Apologies to our regular readers.  I had a computer go down this morning in the process of updating the blog (without the decency to even offer the blue screen of death.  It’s just sort of hung in limbo – and hangs in the same spot each time upon hard reboot — so…  yuck).  I hope to have everything back up and running for tomorrow.  Meanwhile, here’s the gist of what we’ll be watching this week:

- Earnings in general, Durable Goods on Tuesday, The FOMC meeting announcements on Wednesday (cue volatility spike), other secondary economic indicators, and the ongoing Ebola saga.

The trend is likely sideways until the Fed speaks on Wednesday, after which a directional trend is likely to be established.  Giving the problems in Europe right now and the strengthening dollar, I’ll reserve judgment on sentiment for now.  There’s a rational for the market to go either direction.  Economic strength is good for stocks — ending QE is good for economic strength, but possibly bad for expectations — continuing QE is good for cheap money but bad from an economic outlook perspective — you get the idea.  Either way you slice the data it can be both good or bad.

The technical indicators are all sideways too — we’ve above the 200-dma, but below the 50-dma…  in fact, we’re practically right on top of the 100-dma.  The 21-dmalr is positive, but the 50,100, and 200-dma’s are essentially flat.  How the Fed speaks is likely to determine the next move.  Do we re-test 2000 or 1900?  For now, we’re likely to camp between 1941-1967.  A sharp move above or beyond either of these levels would do more than raise my eyebrow.  Otherwise, it’s mostly froth until the Fed opens it’s yapper.

Coin flip anyone?

Check back tomorrow and I’ll have some more detailed quant analysis — complete with lots of pictures — to make up for today.

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